Possible scenario
Talks Slip Past Summit
17% Chance
Negotiators fail to finish the truce-extension language before the summit, but neither side immediately reimposes the harshest tariff or licensing measures. Markets react cautiously because the delay raises headline risk without yet implying a full breakdown.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Industrials -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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