Possible scenario
Warning Validated By Incident
20% Chance
A follow-on cyber or influence incident confirms that the intelligence chiefs were reacting to a live threat stream. This outcome would generate more visible market stress, especially if critical infrastructure or financial services are affected.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -1.0%
- Finance -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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