Possible scenario
Temporary Plan Accepted
38% Chance
Mediators extract enough concessions from Tehran and Washington to test a short reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This is plausible because Iran has already offered a seven-day plan and Qatar has kept indirect channels active despite recent U.S. strikes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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