Possible scenario
Talks Remain Inconclusive
30% Chance
The most immediate result is procedural progress rather than a signed plan. Washington and Tehran keep talking through Qatar, but disagreement persists over whether sanctions relief or verified reopening comes first.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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