Possible scenario
Talks Collapse Militarily
22% Chance
The amended plan fails because Tehran demands broader blockade relief while Washington insists on verified, immediate tanker access. Given the recent fatal cargo attack and U.S. strike on the IRGC Navy, a failed mediation round could quickly feed another limited military exchange.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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