Possible scenario
Yields Grind Higher
38% Chance
The most likely near-term path is a further but orderly selloff in Treasuries as investors price a higher terminal Fed rate and a larger term premium. The move is driven by inflation persistence, stronger PMI data, and concern that deficits require higher compensation from bond buyers.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -1.5%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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