Possible scenario
Endorsement Backfires Locally
18% Chance
The endorsement alienates some voters who supported Gross as an independent-minded figure and reinforces Peltola's argument that Sullivan is tied to national Republican politics. Rather than peeling off Peltola's moderates, the move helps her energize Democrats and rural supporters.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.