Possible scenario
Rift Hurts Turnout
27% Chance
The endorsement omission becomes a visible sign of Democratic disunity after the March primary. Ken Paxton's campaign uses it to depress enthusiasm among Crockett-aligned voters and to argue Talarico cannot unify the party.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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