Possible scenario
Marshall Narrows Race
35% Chance
Sam Brownback's endorsement gives Roger Marshall a recognizable conservative validator after several former GOP governors broke for Adam Hamilton. The most likely effect is not a full reversal, but a tightening race as older Republican voters and church-aligned conservatives become less willing to defect.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.