Possible scenario
Disinflation Rally Extends
42% Chance
The softer US inflation report reinforces the view that additional 2026 Fed hikes are less likely, supporting risk assets and crypto. Spot Bitcoin ETF demand remains the key transmission channel, with BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC likely attracting more tactical inflows if yields keep easing.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Bitcoin Up
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.6%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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