Possible scenario
Federal-State Conflict Escalates
22% Chance
The Trump administration treats the revived SAVE system as an enforcement priority and pushes states to act quickly on DHS match lists. Several state officials challenge the data's reliability, creating a confrontation between federal enforcement demands and state control of voter rolls.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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