Possible scenario
Data Errors Contained
38% Chance
DHS and state election offices reconcile the conflicting SAVE match data and frame the problem as a data-quality and methodology issue rather than evidence of large-scale illegal voting. The Supreme Court's revived citizenship checks remain in place, but implementation becomes slower, more documented, and less disruptive.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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