Possible scenario
Courts Narrow Implementation
28% Chance
Civil-rights groups, affected voters, and Democratic-led states press new lawsuits arguing that conflicting DHS match data makes mass challenges unreliable. Courts do not fully overturn the Supreme Court's emergency posture, but they impose procedural limits on how states may use SAVE outputs.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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