Possible scenario
Negotiated Nuclear Pause
25% Chance
Washington's military posture pressures Tehran into accepting a temporary freeze, monitored inspections, or indirect talks through Oman, Qatar, or the EU. This outcome does not resolve the nuclear issue, but it lowers the immediate probability of a U.S.-Iran clash.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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