Possible scenario
Limited Military Strikes
20% Chance
If U.S. intelligence concludes Iran is moving toward weaponization, Washington may join or support a limited campaign against nuclear, missile, and IRGC facilities. The likely objective would be delay and coercion, not occupation, but the risk of regional retaliation would rise sharply.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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