Coercive Deterrence Holds

The most likely path is that Hegseth's statement is intended to reinforce deterrence rather than signal an imminent invasion. U.S. forces remain on high alert around the Gulf, Iran avoids an overt breakout, and Washington tightens sanctions, intelligence sharing, and military signaling without initiating major combat.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.