Possible scenario
Regional Outbreak Managed
25% Chance
A wider Siberian cluster is confirmed, but Russian authorities keep it geographically contained through hospital isolation, contact tracing, and antibiotics. The event becomes a regional public-health shock rather than a global pandemic event.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.9%
- Healthcare +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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