Possible scenario
Fiscal Math Questioned
28% Chance
Brussels and investors scrutinize whether Italy can credibly bring the deficit below 3% without optimistic revenue assumptions or temporary measures. This creates renewed pressure on Italian bonds, especially given the recent three-year high in 10-year yields.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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