Possible scenario
Budget Credibility Holds
42% Chance
Italy’s government maintains a deficit target below the EU’s 3% ceiling and convinces Brussels that the plan is broadly consistent with the reformed fiscal framework. The most likely path is modest technical revisions rather than a confrontation, helping stabilize sentiment after the recent rise in 10-year yields.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.