Possible scenario
Metals Volatility Spreads
20% Chance
The scale of the $1 trillion drawdown raises the risk of mechanical selling from leveraged funds, ETFs, and commodity trading advisers. This does not become a systemic crisis, but it can spill into miners, high-yield risk, and broader commodity sentiment.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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