Possible scenario
Hawkish Fed Pressure
40% Chance
The most likely path is that the selloff is extended by higher real yields, a stronger dollar, and forced profit-taking after record highs earlier in 2026. September inflation and Fed officials' hawkish projections keep traders focused on tighter policy rather than inflation hedging.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.9%
- Technology -0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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