Hinojosa Narrow Win

Hinojosa converts the polling lead into a narrow Democratic upset by holding urban counties, improving suburban margins, and limiting Republican gains in South Texas. Abbott's border-security message remains potent, but abortion rights and fatigue with a long-serving incumbent drive enough crossover and independent support for Hinojosa.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.