Possible scenario
Contested Toss-Up
18% Chance
The poll proves directionally accurate about a very close race, but neither candidate establishes a decisive lead by election night. Tight margins in large counties and South Texas create recount risk, legal challenges, and short-lived uncertainty around state governance.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Energy -0.1%
- Utilities -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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