Possible scenario
Abbott Comeback
34% Chance
Abbott recovers from the October polling deficit by consolidating Republicans, improving among independents, and using border security to regain the agenda. The GOP's recent gains in South Texas continue, offsetting Democratic strength on abortion and suburban turnout.
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Utilities +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
- Healthcare -0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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