Possible scenario
Managed Economic Breakdown
38% Chance
Iran enters a deeper balance-of-payments crisis, but the state avoids a sudden institutional collapse. The Central Bank of Iran, the IRGC and provincial governors use rationing, arrests and emergency FX rules to slow the panic while sanctions continue to bite.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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