Possible scenario
Limited Diplomatic Pause
24% Chance
The crisis forces Tehran and Washington to test a narrow off-ramp that does not revive the full nuclear deal. Qatar, Oman and the IAEA become conduits for a limited arrangement covering humanitarian trade, oil revenues and inspections.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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