Possible scenario
Renewed Gaza Escalation
20% Chance
The ceasefire deteriorates as Hamas cells, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, or splinter groups resume attacks, prompting broader Israeli operations. The conflict remains centered on Gaza, but the risk of Hezbollah, Houthis, or Iranian-linked actors joining the pressure campaign rises.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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