Possible scenario
Phased Governance Deal
25% Chance
U.S., Egyptian, Qatari, and Saudi diplomacy produces a framework for reducing Israel's footprint while excluding Hamas from formal administration. Israel retains border and counterterrorism authorities initially, but a technocratic Palestinian body backed by the Palestinian Authority begins limited civil governance.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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