Possible scenario
Entrenched Israeli Control
45% Chance
Israel maintains a large security zone, road network, and aid-control apparatus inside Gaza while limiting Hamas reconstitution. The ceasefire remains formally intact, but Gaza is effectively partitioned between Israeli-controlled corridors and densely populated Palestinian enclaves.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.