Possible scenario
Rally impact fades
20% Chance
The rally produces strong visuals and media attention but little measurable movement outside already committed Republican voters. Midterm outcomes continue to be driven by inflation, turnout mechanics, candidate quality, and district fundamentals rather than one campaign stop.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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