Possible scenario
Rate Relief Stabilizes
20% Chance
Bond markets interpret the cancellations data as evidence that restrictive policy is biting, pulling long-term yields and mortgage rates lower. The decline in financing costs brings some sidelined buyers back before home prices fall sharply.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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