Possible scenario
Demand Freeze Deepens
40% Chance
The record September cancellation rate proves to be an early signal of a deeper buyer strike rather than a one-month anomaly. Elevated mortgage rates, record-low affordability, and rising seller competition keep transactions near multi-decade lows.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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