Possible scenario
Political Narrative Contains
40% Chance
Netanyahu's claim remains primarily a retrospective political argument over the Rafah decision and the conduct of the 2024 war cabinet. Eisenkot, Gantz and opposition figures rebut the account, but the issue does not materially change coalition arithmetic or current Gaza policy.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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