Possible scenario
Negotiated Export Corridor
20% Chance
Oman, Qatar, and possibly the United Nations press Tehran and Baghdad toward a narrow maritime understanding. Iran preserves its political warning against alternative routes, while Iraq obtains limited safe passage for crude cargoes to Omani storage.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.7%
- Industrials +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.