Possible scenario
Iraq Workaround Holds
45% Chance
Iraq continues moving state-chartered crude through Hormuz to Omani storage despite Iranian warnings. The route remains risky and capacity-constrained, but Baghdad proves it can recover part of the 90% export loss through repeated shuttle cargoes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Energy -0.1%
Tickers
- FRO+2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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