Possible scenario
Iran Harasses Tankers
25% Chance
Iran stops short of a direct attack but uses naval patrols, radio warnings, drones, and inspections to raise the cost of the Iraqi-Omani route. Baghdad continues shipping, yet insurers and charterers price a higher risk premium into Gulf cargoes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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