Possible scenario
Strategic Intelligence Escalation
20% Chance
U.S. officials conclude that the parts are more sensitive than Australia initially suggested, increasing concern that China could study coatings, materials, or manufacturing tolerances. This scenario would raise defense-security tensions but still falls short of a military crisis.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -2.1%
- Technology -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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