Possible scenario
Limited Border Escalation
25% Chance
A contained escalation remains plausible because both sides have recently traded accusations over drones and border activity. The likely form would be short exchanges of fire, surveillance drones, or localized troop alerts rather than a broad military operation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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