Possible scenario
Protests Force Retreat
20% Chance
A sustained protest movement could make mandatory service politically too costly, especially if it spreads from universities to vocational schools and major cities. In this path, Berlin shifts back toward incentives and reserve reform rather than compulsion.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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