Possible scenario
Truce Holds
45% Chance
Kataib Hezbollah keeps its suspension largely intact after the final U.S. base closure, arguing that its stated objective has been achieved. Iran and Iraq’s Coordination Framework have incentives to avoid renewed U.S. retaliation and to consolidate influence through politics rather than attacks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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