Possible scenario
Baghdad Power Shift
15% Chance
The U.S. exit reduces the immediate military trigger but increases the importance of Iraqi factional bargaining. Kataib Hezbollah and allied groups channel their leverage into ministries, security appointments, budgets, and control over strategic infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.