Possible scenario
Talks Collapse
30% Chance
The Moreno push fails to overcome divisions between deficit hawks, Medicaid-state Republicans, and vulnerable incumbents. Leadership concludes that a pre-election vote would do more political harm than good and defers the issue until after the midterms.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.3%
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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