Possible scenario
Slim Deal Passes
35% Chance
Senate Republicans use Moreno’s argument to rally members around a narrower reconciliation package before the midterms. Leadership keeps the debt-limit increase and some tax extensions, but scales back the most politically damaging Medicaid provisions.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
- Healthcare -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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