Possible scenario
Hardline Bill Advances
20% Chance
Moreno’s framing energizes the party’s right flank, pushing leadership toward a tougher reconciliation text. The bill pairs tax extensions and a large debt-limit increase with more aggressive Medicaid savings, creating sharper sector dispersion.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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