Possible scenario
Sahel Combat Escalation
20% Chance
Algeria’s deployment becomes an active combat operation against jihadist networks operating between Mali, Niger, and southern Algeria. This is less likely than a limited mission but plausible given the reported Al Qaeda advance in Mali and Algeria’s concern about spillover toward its desert energy infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
- Industrials +0.7%
- Consumer Services -0.6%
Tickers
- CCO+2.4%
- TTE-1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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