Possible scenario
Favorable Regulatory Path
45% Chance
The Phase 3 result becomes the foundation for U.S. and European filings for the Roche-Ionis kidney drug, likely in IgA nephropathy or a closely related proteinuric kidney indication. The most likely path is positive regulatory engagement, though the breadth of the label depends on durability, eGFR data and safety detail.
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.1%
Tickers
- IONS+8.2%
- VERA-3.0%
- TVTX-2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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