Possible scenario
Optics Without Deal
30% Chance
The trilateral summit idea survives as diplomatic theater, but none of the three leaders offers the concessions needed for a ceasefire. This path fits the incentives of all sides: keep channels open, avoid blame for failure and preserve leverage before Miami.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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