Possible scenario
Miami Summit Advances
45% Chance
Putin’s shift is treated as a genuine opening to a trilateral meeting around the Miami G20. The most likely path is process-heavy diplomacy: envoys work on format, security guarantees and agenda sequencing, while markets price a modest reduction in Ukraine-war tail risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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