Possible scenario
Toss-Up Persists
22% Chance
The spending gap increases message volume but does not decisively move voters because both sides are already heavily advertised and candidate quality differs by state. Control of the Senate remains unresolved until the final week, keeping political-risk pricing modest but persistent.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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