Possible scenario
GOP Edge Holds
38% Chance
Republican outside groups and the NRSC continue converting their cash advantage into heavier TV and digital saturation in the most expensive Senate battlegrounds. The GOP's spending lead offsets some Democratic candidate-level fundraising strength and leaves Republicans favored to keep Senate control.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Finance +0.3%
- Healthcare +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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